This year's World Series has the 3rd best team in the AL facing the 5th best team in the NL. So much for the regular season meaning a whole lot. Sheez, the DBacks had a negative run differential and a Pythag record below .500! And yet here they are, the National League champions.
The MLB playoffs are one big crap shoot. And as the greedy owners continue to expand the number of teams making the playoffs, it just gets worse. Here's how the different playoff formats have fared over the years, with the league rank of the team that ended up the "league champion":
| Lg Rank | Teams Making Playoffs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 teams | 8 teams | 10 teams | 12 teams | |
| 1 | 29 | 12 | 7 | 1 |
| 2 | 14 | 8 | 3 | - |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | - |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | - | - | - | 1 |
| 7 | - | - | 1 | - |
| tot teams | 50 | 34 | 18 | 4 |
| 1-2 pct | 86% | 59% | 56% | 25% |
| years | 25 | 17 | 9 | 2 |
Way back in the last century when only four teams made the post-season, one of the two "best" teams (based on their season record) won the league championship 86% of the time. That's fine for an expanded format -- a bit of chance involved, but not much. But with the 10-team format one of the two best teams only won the championship 56% of the time. Pretty much a coin flip. And so far with the 12-team format, one of the two best teams has won the league championship only 25% of the time. And there's no reason to think that won't be the "norm" from here on out. A true crap shoot. The regular season means very little any more. Just field a slightly above average team, make the playoffs, and cross your fingers. That's your MLB.
Nov. 1, 2023
The hard reality of this season is that the Yankees simply do not have a very good team, period. They currently have just two starting position players who are above average hitters based on OPS+, and only one starting pitcher who is above average based on ERA+. Here's how that compares to the rest of the AL:
| Team | Win % | Starters Above Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batters | Pitchers | ||
| Baltimore | 0.623 | 6 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.606 | 8 | 3 |
| Seattle | 0.569 | 8 | 4 |
| Texas | 0.562 | 6 | 3 |
| Houston | 0.561 | 3 | 3 |
| Toronto | 0.542 | 6 | 4 |
| Boston | 0.527 | 6 | 3 |
| Minnesota | 0.519 | 4 | 5 |
| Los Angeles | 0.481 | 4 | 2 |
| New York | 0.477 | 2 | 1 |
| Cleveland | 0.473 | 3 | 5 |
| Detroit | 0.454 | 2 | 3 |
| Chicago | 0.397 | 2 | 2 |
| Kansas City | 0.311 | 2 | 1 |
| Oakland | 0.290 | 2 | 0 |
Only Oakland has less talent. Heck, the Yankees have a better record than Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago -- all of whom have arguably more talent.
So, yeah, you can fire Aaron Boone but he certainly is not the problem. You could even argue that he did a pretty good job -- better record than three other teams with more talent. But until you bring in a bunch of better players, don't expect anything different. And that is all on Cashman and Steinbrenner. That is where the real problem is. Firing Boone will accomplish nothing.
Aug. 28, 2023