Winning Ugly

August 29, 2010 – 11:20 am

NYY 12, Chicago 9. This one was certainly an ugly game, but I guess at this point you take the wins anyway you can. Lots of less than encouraging news though — hopefully CC Sabathia isn’t catching A.J. disease like everyone else in the starting rotation seems to be, as he got roughed up for 5 runs on 9 hits in 7 innings. Now that’s the first bad start he’s had since back in May, so I’m going to call that a fluke and not worry about it. But then the bullpen, the one shining constant for the Yankees over the last couple of months, also got roughed up pretty good. Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan, and David Robertson all got hit hard, giving up a combined 4 runs on 6 hits while recording all of 3 outs. Again, they’ve all been rock solid for some time now, so hopefully that’s just a fluke as well. Even Mariano Rivera, who ended up having to come in for the save, put two runners on to bring the tying run to the plate. Sheez — overall some pretty bad pitching.

Nunez Goes YardIn spite of putting up 12 runs on 14 hits, there was also cause for concern with the offense. Mark Teixeira went out in the third inning with a bruised hand — supposedly he’ll be back in the lineup today, but isn’t that how Alex Rodriquez’ current stint on the DL started out? Losing Tex at this point could be disastrous. Beyond that though, lots of stuff to smile about. Robbie Cano may be getting back in his groove, going 3-for-5, and ditto for Jorge Posada who had two key doubles. Then there’s Marcus Thames, who went 2-for-5 with 3 RBIs, including two home runs, giving him four homers in the last four games. I know this guy is supposed to be a platoon player who has trouble hitting righties, but hey — over the month of August he’s got a .380 BA and 1.135 OPS. I say give him the permanent DH spot until he cools off regardless of who is on the mound.

But the real offensive surprise was Eduardo Nunez, who went 3-for-4 with 4 RBIs including a 2-run homer in the second. At one point Nunez was one of the top prospects in the organization, but over the last couple of years he has struggled some in the minors. Sure would be nice to see him all of a sudden start living up to those earlier prognostications. A-Rod is scheduled to be back shortly, but if Nunez can swing a hot bat off the bench, he sure would be more valuable than Ramiro Pena in that position.

Photo: NY Daily News

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In Search Of Starting Pitching

August 27, 2010 – 10:50 pm

Chicago 9, NYY 4. Another series opener loss, another terrible start by A.J. Burnett, another anemic performance from the offense. The beat goes on. The streak of playing .500 ball now extends to 30 games. The streak of losing games when Burnett is the starting pitcher is now at five, as A.J. finishes the month of August 0-4 with a 7.80 ERA. Going up against Freddie Garcia who was also having a terrible August (0-1 with a 6.97 ERA), the Yankees could only score two runs (one earned) in seven innings.

At this point I can easily see the Yankees not even making the playoffs, or if they do, it’s really hard to see how they can make it beyond the Divisional Series. The pitching rotation is a total mess beyond CC Sabathia. The news on Andy Pettitte continues to be discouraging, and the reality now is that even if he does come back, he’s not going to have enough starts to get back to his early season form. Burnett appears to be done for the season, a number five starter at best. Phil Hughes has his moments, but he’s on this silly innings limit, so who knows what to expect of him for the remainder of the season and post-season. Javier Vazquez hasn’t made it past the fifth inning since July. The best hope for the rotation right now is Dustin Moseley and Ivan Nova. What a mess.

I bet that Cubbies job opening is starting to look pretty good to Joe Girardi.

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The August Malaise

August 26, 2010 – 1:41 pm

Toronto 6, NYY 3. Win a game, lose a game. Win a series, lose a series. This is getting pretty tiresome. The Yankees are 29 games over .500, exactly where they were 26 games ago. Last night was an all-too-familiar scene, with another Yankee starter getting roughed up, and the Yankee offense pretty much sleep walking. Ultimately the game is all about pitching, so I guess you tip your hat to Brett Cecil as he did seem to have pretty good stuff going for him. Hughes, on the other hand, didn’t look all that bad but just couldn’t finish off hitters once he got two strikes on them, which seems to be a disturbing trend for him. By my count on five of the six hits he gave up he had two strikes on the batter, and only one of the hits came when he was behind in the count. He did end up striking out six, but he also walked five, all of which led to a 100+ pitch count before even finishing the fourth inning.

I don’t doubt the hitting will be there, particularly once Alex Rodriquez and Lance Berkman return from the DL, which should be soon. But the pitching is another matter all together. Beyond CC Sabathia it’s one big void — there’s no legitimate No. 2 pitcher right now, and the No. 3 is a Jekyll-and-Hyde Burnett. Somebody needs to step up and fill the void, but at this point I have no idea how that is going to happen. Ugh.

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More .500 Ball

August 24, 2010 – 1:06 pm

Toronto 3, NYY 2. Given that the Yankees had three bench players in the starting lineup, and the starting pitcher was making his first ever MLB start, you pretty much couldn’t have much expectations of a win. Although going up against Brandon Morrow, you never can tell. In three previous starts against Morrow, the Yankees roughed him up twice, but got shut down by him once. But Morrow was very sharp in this one, and so a very nice debut by Ivan Nova was wasted, at least as far as the outcome of the game went. But Nova certainly pitched well enough to give the Yankees one more option in dealing with a precarious starting rotation. Hopefully we’ll get another chance soon to see if he’s as good as he looked in this one.

So the Yankees once again lost the first game of a series. That’s become a rather disturbing trend of late, as they have now lost the series opener in seven of their last eight series. Nothing like continually putting yourself in a hole. Seems like Girardi manages series “backwards”, often sending out a below-average lineup in the opener. If memory serves (and it probably doesn’t all that well!), Joe Torre put a lot more emphasis on winning the first game of a series, and then only after winning the first two games of a series would he go with a “house money” lineup, resting players only when the series win had been cinched. Girardi, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to put much emphasis on that first game. If you end up winning series, then there’s nothing wrong with that strategy. But the problem right now is that over the last eight series the Yankees are playing .500 ball. And that ain’t going to cut it down the stretch run. They need to get back to playing .600+ ball, and seems to me a good way to get there is to start winning the first games of series, and not having to continually play catch-up.

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The CC-Cano Show

August 22, 2010 – 5:52 pm

MVP Cano?NYY 10, Seattle 0. CC Sabathia and Robinson Cano both made great cases today for why they might be deserving of post-season awards, like the CY Young and MVP. CC has become Mr. Automatic over the last three months, as you have to go all the way back to May 29 to find a start where he gave up more than three runs. Since then his record is 13-2 with just one no decision, and the Yankees over that period are 14-2 in his starts. Sunday he totally shut down the Mariners on just 3 hits while striking out eight — although to be fair, it took a phantom call at home when Jorge Posada clearly missed tagging out Franklin Gutierrez to keep CC’s shutout in order.  And credit the bullpen for yet another good performance, with Kerry Wood and Joba Chamberlain putting the finishing touches on the combined shutout

Offensively it was another good showing where everyone in the lineup got at least one hit or scored a run. But once again, it was Robbie Cano taking advantage of the cleanup spot in the order, this time going 2-for-4 with a grand slam and a career high 6 RBIs. Take your time getting well, A-Rod, I don’t think the team misses you at all! Over the last two series, the offense has now averaged over six runs a game. And with the pitching outside of CC and Phil Hughes very much a question mark these days, it’s oh so good to see the offense finally get back on a roll.

Photo: Yahoo! Sports

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Offense Covers Vazquez Stinker

August 21, 2010 – 9:44 pm

A-Rod to the DLNYY 9, Seattle 5. Javier Vazquez played a game of “whatever you can do bad I can do worse” with A.J. Burnett, and Javier won handily, giving up 4 runs in just 3 innings to the weak hitting Mariners. At least with A.J. we know very well what to expect and not to expect. With Vazquez, though, you just never know. He started the season terrible, then recovered and pitched rather well for a while, but now he’s back to pitching like he did earlier, perhaps even worse. Where he’s headed is anyone’s guess. With an off-day looming ahead next Thursday, one would hope that at least they will skip his turn in the rotation, and maybe that will help? At the same time, I sure would like to see them start stretching out someone else to pick up the slack — like maybe Chad Gaudin, who looked pretty good today, going 3 scoreless innings and giving up just one hit while striking out three.

Fortunately, the offense was back to hitting after taking the day off yesterday, so Vazquez’ stinker didn’t cost them the game. With Alex Rodriguez officially going on the DL, Robbie Cano was in the cleanup spot, and responded well, going 2-for-4 with 2 RBIs and a run scored. In fact, Robbie has now hit cleanup in all eleven games that A-Rod has missed, and in that spot has gone 16-for-43 with 5 HRs, 13 RBIs, .372 BA, and 1.227 OPS.  And amazingly, the Yankees are now 11-0 with Cano hitting cleanup!  With the off-year that Alex is having, you have to wonder if maybe keeping Cano in the cleanup spot after Alex returns might not be such a bad idea. I doubt that will happen, at least not this year, but next year might be a different story.

Photo: Yahoo! Sports

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Jekyll-and-Hyde Burnett

August 21, 2010 – 3:57 pm

Just how much of a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher is A.J. Burnett?  Let’s look at starts by Yankee pitchers using the metric runs allowed per inning for each start.  Clearly, the best starts will be the ones where the starter had a R/IP of zero, and so far this year Yankee starters have done that 19 times.  Who has the most of these mini-shutouts?  Somewhat surprisingly it’s A.J. Burnett.  But what’s shocking is that he has 6 of those 19 — no other starter has more than 2!  Yep, even CC has only two starts where he’s not allowed a run compared to A.J.’s six.

Now let’s look at the other end of that distribution — who has the starts with the most runs allowed per innning?  Not surprisingly, it’s also A.J.  But what’s shocking here is that A.J. has every one of the six worst starts, ranging from allowing 1.7 to 2.1 R/IP.  So not only does A.J. dominate the list of best starts, the worst six starts of the season belong to him.

Here’s how he has done in his 25 starts:

Runs Allowed Games %
0-2 10 40%
3-4 6 24%
6+ 9 36%

Call a start where he gives up four or fewer runs a “good” start, and starts where he gives up six or more runs a bad start, and you are right at the “every third start is a stinker” ratio.

Predictable Bad A.J.

August 20, 2010 – 9:10 pm

Seattle 6, NYY 0. As I guessed, it was Bad A.J. Burnett that showed up in this one. A.J.’s unpredictability has become sadly oh so predictable. Over the last 10 times through the rotation, it’s been Good A.J. for two starts and then Bad A.J. takes a turn. Burnett had two good starts in his previous outings, so it was no surprise at all when going against Seattle — the weakest offensive team in the league, averaging just over 3 runs per game — A.J. gave up that many runs to them in just the first inning, and then coughed up three more over the next five innings. You wonder what would happen if the Yankees just skipped Burnett every third time through the rotation?

Of course with King Felix Hernandez pitching for Seattle it really didn’t matter who was on the mound for the Yankees. In three starts against Hernandez the Yankees are 0-3 and have scored just one run — working out to a 0.32 ERA. Hernandez is as much a sure win against the Yankees as Burnett is a sure loss every third start. I wonder if Vegas was even taking bets on this game.

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Winning Streaks

August 20, 2010 – 4:33 pm

OK, I got to thinking about winning streaks and how it sure would be a good time to go on one about now, and it occurred to me that it seemed like last year we saw a lot of long winning streaks.  So I did a little bit of research and sure enough — last year at this point in the season the Yankees’ record was pretty much identical to this year’s record — 75-46 this year vs. 76-45 last year.  But at this point last year, they had put together eleven (!) distinct winning streaks of six games or more.  And this year?  Only three streaks that long.  Now of course, given that the overall records are the same, that implies there were a lot of losing streaks last year as well.  And sure enough, last year they had losing streaks of three or more games nine times, whereas this year they’ve only had four such streaks.  In fact, the longest losing streak this year is just three games which I suspect is pretty remarkable.  Bottom line is that the 2010 Yankees are a heckuva lot more consistent than last year’s team, but the end result so far has been the same.

I have no idea what any of this means.  But I’d still like to see a 7- or 8-game winning streak!

And Yet More Offense!

August 20, 2010 – 9:56 am

NYY 11, Detroit 5. Wow, three solid offensive showings in a row! Of course this is against Detroit, who ranks fourth from the bottom in R/G in the league. But still, I’ll take it as a start. Robinson Cano got his first multi-hit game in two weeks, going 3-for-5 with 3 RBIs, and hit a home run for the third consecutive game. Robbie has been cooling off of late, so seeing him get back on the pace he was on earlier in the season would be nice. Austin Kearns also had yet another good day, going 2-for-4 with 2 RBIs. Kearns is turning out, so far at least, to be quite the nice mid-season addition. Since joining the Yankees, he’s hitting .372 with a 1.021 OPS.

Austin KearnsAnd not to be overlooked was a very good outing by Phil Hughes — the proverbial “quality start”, going six innings and giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits. And those two runs came on a Miguel Cabrera home run, so that’s certainly excusable as Cabrera is one of the better power hitters in the league, and is really on a tear right now. It was also nice to see Hughes get six Ks, as he seems to been having problems finishing off hitters his last couple of starts. One can easily see Hughes finishing the season as the No. 2 starter in the rotation, so having him pitching like this is more than a little important. Of course there’s this whole innings limit thing going on in the background…. it’s going to be interesting to see how the Yankees deal with that in the post-season if in fact he really is the No. 2 at that time.

Tonight will be a good test of exactly where this offense is, with Felix Hernandez on the mound for Seattle. If they can put up some crooked numbers on King Felix, I might become a believer. A.J. Burnett is pitching for the Yankees, and if it’s Bad A.J. that shows up (and it is Bad A.J.’s turn in the Burnett rotation), we are going to need a lot of offense, that’s for sure.

Photo: Yahoo! Sports

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