Just How Bad Are Things?

June 21, 2013 – 8:29 pm

I thought this would be a fun exercise — compare this years team to last years team using 10-day moving averages for wOBA and FIP.  Here’s how they compare on hitting (wOBA):

Interestingly, for about the first six weeks the trend was pretty much the same, although last year’s team was hitting significantly better than this year’s team, as you would expect. They both started out hot, and then quickly nose-dived — but then last year’s team stabilized in the .325-.350 range, a bit higher than league average. This year’s team stabilized for a couple of weeks, but then starting around the first week in May began a nosedive that has yet to find a bottom. The current wOBA over the last 10 games is an unbelievable .237. To put that in perspective, last year the worst team wOBA in the league was Seattle at .291. The current Yankees are 54 points worse than that! And they are more than 100 points below what last years team finished the season at (.342)!

It really is hard to put in to words just how bad this offense is right now. Surely the pitching is a brighter picture, no? Here’s how this year’s team compares to last years on FIP:

Surprisingly (at least to moi), this year’s pitching is actually trending very close to what it did last year. I would have thought the pitching this year was significantly better. But that’s really not the case. For the month of April they were about the same, then for May this year was somewhat better, but then in June it’s been quite a bit worse. Hopefully the trend of the last two weeks will get reversed quickly, as that’s about the only hope this team has right now. It sure ain’t going to come from the hitting.

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