Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Going Into The Playoffs

October 5, 2010 – 1:36 pm

Overall we know that the Yankees have pretty much sucked over the last month of the season, so let’s look at the individual stats to see who all we can point a finger at, and hope that they get their acts together rather quickly. Let’s start with the bad news first, which is the pitching. Here’s what it looks like over the last month:

Name G W L SV IP H R ER BB K ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9
Burnett, A 6 0 3 0 29.1 32 21 19 13 24 5.83 1.53 7.4 4.0
Hughes, P 4 1 2 0 25.0 20 14 14 10 20 5.04 1.20 7.2 3.6
Moseley 2 0 2 0 11.2 10 8 8 4 4 6.17 1.20 3.1 3.1
Nova 5 0 1 0 25.2 25 18 18 12 14 6.31 1.44 4.9 4.2
Pettitte 3 0 1 0 13.1 22 11 10 3 11 6.75 1.88 7.4 2.0
Sabathia 5 2 2 0 35.0 31 17 16 9 32 4.12 1.14 8.2 2.3
Vazquez, J 3 0 1 0 14.1 20 16 16 8 7 10.04 1.95 4.4 5.0
Total Starters 28 3 12 0 154.1 160 105 101 59 112 5.89 1.42 6.5 3.4
Albaladejo 7 0 0 0 7.2 7 4 4 7 5 4.70 1.83 5.9 8.2
Chamberlain 14 2 0 1 13.2 10 5 4 2 18 2.63 0.88 11.9 1.3
Gaudin 9 1 1 0 9.2 13 8 8 4 5 7.45 1.76 4.7 3.7
Logan 15 1 0 0 8.1 6 4 4 6 11 4.32 1.44 11.9 6.5
Mitre 6 0 1 0 7.1 7 2 2 2 4 2.45 1.23 4.9 2.5
Rivera, Ma 11 0 1 5 11.1 11 6 6 2 6 4.77 1.15 4.8 1.6
Robertson, D 14 2 1 0 14.2 12 5 5 9 15 3.07 1.43 9.2 5.5
Wood, K 12 1 0 0 12.2 4 1 1 8 16 0.71 0.95 11.4 5.7
Total Bullpen 28 8 5 6 100.1 88 43 42 50 93 3.77 1.38 8.3 4.5
TEAM TOTAL 28 11 17 6 254.2 248 148 143 109 205 5.05 1.40 7.2 3.9
Last 28 games as of 10/03/2010 min 6 IP

Not surprisingly, it’s the starting pitching that has been killing the team, and looking at the ERAs pretty much sums it up. Beyond CC Sabathia, no one is coming even close to getting the job done. And quite frankly, CC’s stats are pretty mediocre. But what’s interesting is that as bad as A.J. Burnett has been, he’s got a better ERA and WHIP than Andy Pettitte. Now from everything I’ve read recently, Pettitte is getting the Game 2 start — in spite of the fact that over the last month he’s been the second worst starter in the rotation (at least based on ERA). I know there are a lot of intangibles here, and probably some of the more advanced stats might make a better case for this choice — but still, as much as I like Pettitte, I do wonder about the wisdom here. As scary as A.J. is, the fact still remains that his main problem is consistency, and on any given day he’s just as liable to be unhittable as he is to stinking up the joint. Hopefully the plan is to have Pettitte on a short leash, and if he shows signs early of not being able to keep the ball down as has been his problem of late, Girardi will yank him very quickly.

At least for the bullpen, with the exception of Chad Gaudin who surely won’t even be on the roster, the numbers look pretty decent. Kerry Wood is not surprisingly the best arm in the bullpen right now, and Joba Chamberlain overall has done pretty well of late. Of course the big question mark here is the one that nobody is talking about — Mariano Rivera. He’s looked a bit more like the old Mo in his last two appearances, but overall the last month was shaky for him, and there is that age thing working. It goes without saying, though, that if Rivera isn’t his usual self for the playoffs, it will be over pretty quickly for the Yankees.

Given the fragility of the pitching, it sure would be nice to see the offense go on a tear — here’s what the hitters look like over the last month:

Name G AB R H HR RBI BB SO LOB AVG OBP SLG OPS BA/RISP
Berkman 23 64 5 18 1 5 12 9 33 .281 .395 .359 .754 .267
Cano 27 112 11 35 3 19 7 15 41 .313 .361 .438 .799 .379
Cervelli 14 31 8 13 0 6 11 4 13 .419 .568 .516 1.084 .500
Gardner 24 75 17 18 0 6 14 19 44 .240 .356 .387 .743 .167
Granderson 27 92 16 22 7 22 16 27 34 .239 .349 .533 .882 .318
Jeter 25 106 16 31 0 8 14 20 42 .292 .382 .349 .731 .346
Kearns 14 39 3 8 0 0 4 20 31 .205 .326 .205 .531 .000
Posada 22 62 5 10 1 6 9 24 33 .161 .278 .274 .552 .176
Rodriguez 25 95 16 28 9 28 14 20 43 .295 .375 .600 .975 .276
Swisher 23 81 8 20 4 9 7 22 39 .247 .315 .420 .735 .056
Teixeira 27 102 13 20 3 10 18 28 49 .196 .328 .324 .652 .200
Thames 19 51 4 12 2 5 0 12 27 .235 .235 .373 .608 .091
TEAM TOTAL 28 989 133 250 30 128 130 231 474 .253 .344 .393 .737 .241
Last 28 games as of 10/03/2010 min 30 AB

The one thing that screams out here is the Posada/Cervelli numbers. Not only is Jorge hitting very poorly over the last month, he’s trending even further in the wrong direction — over the last 10 games he’s a disastrous 1-for-24 (.042 BA). Now look at Cervelli’s last month — he’s the hottest hitter on the team! Plus, he’s trending in the right direction — over the last 10 games, he’s actually gone 6-for-10. Now if there were a big difference in defense between the two, then maybe you can use that to justify keeping Posada in the lineup. But the reality is that both have had terrible years defensively, and in fact that could be just as big a worry as the starting pitching. So common sense would tell you that Cervelli ought to be getting significant playing time in the playoffs, but alas, I see no possibility of that happening. So about all we can hope for is Jorge coming out of this terrible slump quickly and with vengeance.

Beyond that position, for the most part the offense looks to be in pretty good shape. Yes, Mark Teixeira’s numbers over the last month are ugly — but at least he’s trending up (last 10 games his OPS was .973). Jeter and Granderson have also been on hot streaks of late, and of course Alex Rodriquez has been solid throughout the last month. And even Robbie Cano seems to be back hitting the way he was earlier in the season. So add it all up, and the offense seems ready for the playoffs. And good thing, as I suspect the Yankees are going to need all the offense they can get given the state of the pitching.

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