Jekyll-and-Hyde Burnett

August 21, 2010 – 3:57 pm

Just how much of a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher is A.J. Burnett?  Let’s look at starts by Yankee pitchers using the metric runs allowed per inning for each start.  Clearly, the best starts will be the ones where the starter had a R/IP of zero, and so far this year Yankee starters have done that 19 times.  Who has the most of these mini-shutouts?  Somewhat surprisingly it’s A.J. Burnett.  But what’s shocking is that he has 6 of those 19 — no other starter has more than 2!  Yep, even CC has only two starts where he’s not allowed a run compared to A.J.’s six.

Now let’s look at the other end of that distribution — who has the starts with the most runs allowed per innning?  Not surprisingly, it’s also A.J.  But what’s shocking here is that A.J. has every one of the six worst starts, ranging from allowing 1.7 to 2.1 R/IP.  So not only does A.J. dominate the list of best starts, the worst six starts of the season belong to him.

Here’s how he has done in his 25 starts:

Runs Allowed Games %
0-2 10 40%
3-4 6 24%
6+ 9 36%

Call a start where he gives up four or fewer runs a “good” start, and starts where he gives up six or more runs a bad start, and you are right at the “every third start is a stinker” ratio.

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